When Is 1x > 9x ?

After the rainout on Wednesday and the double header yesterday, everything seems out of sorts (kind of like this season for the Giants).  M spends a minute discussing the leadup to two terrible losses by the Giants yesterday and the late game frustrations once again.  Then it's on to tonight's game against Tampa Bay who have been playing really good ball lately.  He goes over some numbers and a couple thoughts, and then after scrounging around for a while M is able to dig up a Safe Bet of the Day™.  He leaves off with today's song of the day by Zach Bryan, "Whiskey Fever" which is what it feels like lately watching these games.  

In case you haven't figured it out, the answer to the titular riddle is, when x = Ray.

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:11

And welcome back to stage at AM in the A.M. San Francisco Giants Pre Game Podcast. Bringing you previews, projections, and predictions before every Giants game. Good morning and welcome back into the pod. It is Friday, May 1st, May Day, I guess. I'm sure you're out celebrating however you're so supposed to celebrate May Day, a pole dance, I think. Some way to celebrate spring. I don't quite remember how that's supposed to go. Anyway, a lot has happened since the last podcast because of the postponement of the game on Wednesday till Thursday, which made for the double header. And the reason there wasn't gonna be a podcast on Thursday was because of the early time of the game, which was supposed to be 10 o'clock, but it got moved even earlier till 9.35 because of the second game that had to be played, which meant when I got home from work, the game had already started, so I wasn't even able to get anything in on the first game. And then on the second game, I had Painter and over 15.5 hits, and the painter one got canceled because the Phillies ended up doing going with a bullpen game. So out of both games, I only had over 15 and a half hits on the second game, which did actually come in, but for our purposes, we'll just call them both pushes because I was not able to get in and make any official picks on those two games because of the postponement and the time changes, which might be good because gee mini Christmas. I was gonna say it's overcast here today, and it was sure overcast in Giants Land right now after those brutal losses for the Giants and the doubleheader because of the game being canceled on Wednesday. Back-to-back walk-off losses, leading both games in the ninth. Couldn't close them out, could have easily had two wins, instead, two losses, got swept. You know, if you count the game on, that was Tuesday, that's three. Yeah, so we got swept by the Phillies. So I guess there's no reason to spend too much time on that. It was just two terri, like I said, ahead in the ninth in both games and couldn't close it out, gave it up with I guess went into extras in the second game, but still just two terrible, terrible losses for the Giants. But we might as well just move right on to today's game, which is Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay had yesterday off uh while we had a doubleheader, a late game extra inning, so that's not gonna bode well for today for our team compared to their team being rested. Let's see, they did just lose their last game at Cleveland, but before that they had won six in a row, and in that six in a row, they had never given up more than two runs. See, right now they're on a four-game home winning streak, eight and four total at home. Their offensive numbers, they got guys like Junior Camanero, eight home runs. Diaz is hitting 330. Their offensive numbers, they're better than the Giants in every category, as you would probably expect. What you might not expect is that their pitching numbers are also better than the Giants in almost every category. That's not good. The fact that their offense is so good, it's gonna give Ray a bit of trouble today. That's who we have on the mound, Robbie Ray. You know, you know, I've liked him all year. He's been solid, 2.70 ERA, usually a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks. So usually a lot of pitches, which kind of worries me because he's never only once has he got more than six innings, and I'm gonna guess that they're gonna ask him to go extra today because our bullpen is gonna be so exhausted after the two games yesterday and the extra innings. I think he's gonna be asked to go as far as he can possibly go, given the way he usually pitches. That means he's gonna have to throw strikes, not walk out guys, or not walk guys. So could be asking a lot of him. He is facing a guy named Shane McClanahan for Tampa Bay, and he's an interesting guy. He he's been off for two years because he had back-to-back Tommy John surgeries, and he has come back now. He's pitched in five games, and the first four weren't that great. Average strikeout rate, kind of a high walk rate, kind of too many runs, a 5.0 ERA. But his last game was very good. See, he went five innings, no runs, only gave up three hits and two walks, had seven strikeouts, and afterwards, it was his first home game, home win in three years because he'd been off for so long. And he was talking about how emotional it was for him and how he felt like he turned a corner and was back to his old self. And his old self is low threes ERA. So if that's true, he is a solid pitcher. And if the Giants come in tired, they are gonna be in trouble facing him. So that's kind of what I think for the game. I think the Giants are gonna be tired, they're gonna be a little sluggish. They had two games yesterday, two psychologically depleting games, the late game. So they didn't get out of town till who who knows what time they got out of town and what time they got into Tampa Bay, etc., etc. So I think it's gonna be kind of a low-scoring game, especially through the first five, because both of the starting pitchers have been very dependable so far. If Ray can limit the walks, I could see it be low scoring through the first five. I'm a little unsure about our bullpen because they were so used yesterday. So I'm gonna take all that information and get to today's safe bet of the day. And as usual, it is difficult to find numbers I like because the Giants are underdogs, the money line, they're plus 130. I certainly don't feel confident enough to take them to win the game. The out for McClanahan was minus 140, his strikeout number was minus 150. Those are both too high. I was leaning toward the under just because I think the Giants are going to be so sluggish and they could probably drag the Rays down with them. And if Ray could do fine and keep them down, then it should be a low-scoring game. But I'm still really worried about the bullpen. I just not sure. I mean, we gave up hits and runs yesterday, and they're certainly used up. They can't be that fresh now. We used everybody. So I'm worried that late in the game we might give up runs. So I kind of want to take the bullpins out of it. I was thinking about the under seven and a half, like I said, but the first five is under four. I feel a little better about that because it takes out the pin. I kind of like the under 15 and a half hits, but it's minus 134 because I think the Giants are gonna be sluggish and they're gonna have a tough time hitting off McClanahan. And I also think that Ray could make it tough on the Rays. So I could see the hits being under 15 and a half hits, but that's minus 134. But what I'm gonna do today is go with something again, something completely different, something I haven't done yet this year. And it's but mostly based on a few things. One, I want to take the bullpins out of it. Two, I think the Giants are gonna be sluggish and tired, especially right off the bat. Three, I think the pitchers are gonna be able to be solid enough to be pretty good during the first half of this game. So I'm gonna go with no runs in the first. The old nerf bet. It is minus 130, pretty high. There's just no real picks that I like out there, and the other ones are even higher than that, or just unplayable. So we're gonna go with something we've never gone with before. The no runs in the first at minus 130. So we'll find out whether we win or lose this right off the bat. By 430, we're gonna know whether this one hit or not. So that should be interesting. We'll mix it up a little bit, do something different. With that, that takes me to the song of the day, and I'm gonna go today with. Remember, one of my kids sent this on one of their playlists. This was a couple years ago, and it's a song by Zach Bryan called Whiskey Fever. And mostly because if the Giants lose again today, I may have to get myself into a whiskey fever. After that double header yesterday was so bad. Anyway, it's a really good tune, a really boot-kicking country tune. Get you going. So, whiskey fever by Zach Bryan, give it a listen. Tomorrow, let's see, the game is 3-10, and it is Land and Roop against Jesse Schultons, I guess is how you would say that. I don't know much about him yet, but I will have time hopefully to do a look into him. And tomorrow we will then discuss today's game and see how it goes. This is our first chance to look at Tampa Bay. Not quite sure how they're gonna beat. Should be interesting. I always like to see the first game of a series of a team that we haven't seen yet. And so we'll analyze today's game, talk about tomorrow's, and hopefully we will be discussing a Giants win for the first time in a while. With that, that's all I have. Hope everybody has a great day out there. As always, stay safe and go Giants.