Nothin' but A Houser Party

Giants can't pull off the sweep, but a series win against the Dodgers is always good.  For tonight's game, M looks at the Marlins in general and the pitching matchup in particular. Some interesting stats about the start to the Marlins season and a look at Sandy Alcantara's numbers lead to a quick analysis of today's odds.  Form there it's a short walk to today's Safe Bet of the Day™. That is followed again by a song of the day, "(Ain't Nothin' but A) House Party" by the J. Geils Band.  It's Friday, the perfect night for a house party!

Transcript

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San Francisco Giants free game podcast. Preview previews, predictions, and predictions before every Giants game. Good morning and welcome back into the POV. It is Saturday, April 24th. Always good to come in on a Saturday. I'm sure everyone has a wonderful weekend scheduled ahead of them. It's a little cooler out there today, slightly overcast. I think it's supposed to be high 50s at game time, a little cooler than last night's game. Unfortunately, we are coming to you after the Giants lost yesterday. They could not finish the sweep. It was kind of a lot to ask. Webb and the Penn did fine. They did their parts. They just could not get any support, getting shut out. But happy with the series win, happy with the pitching throughout. Still not much offense, even with the two wins. Three, three, and zero. That's not enough. I mean, I guess it got us two wins, so it kind of was enough, but if not a lot, you would hope for more. We did have excellent pitching, giving up only one, zero, and three to that Dodger lineup. So you gotta be happy with that. So anyway, good runs to the Dodgers. They are heading back home to face the Cubs, who are having a really good year and could actually challenge the Dodgers. And we are welcoming in the 12 and 13 Miami Marlins. Now, two interesting things about their schedule so far. They started out this season with a series at home against Colorado and a series at home against the White Sox. Two of the worst teams in all of baseball. They went 5-1 in that time. Since then, they've gone 7-12 since they've been playing actual teams. Also, they have won 10 of their 12 games at home. They're 10-6 at home and 2-7 on the road. So they're 7-12 when they play actual teams and 2-7 on the road, and they're playing the Giants who are usually an actual team, and they're on the road. So those both mode well for the Giants. The bad news is we are facing the top three pitchers in their rotation with Sandy Alcantare today, Yuri Perez tomorrow, and Max Meyer on Sunday. So that's too bad, but I don't mind because tomorrow we have Robbie Ray on the mound and then Landon Roop on Sunday. So we'll at least have good matchups on those games. It's tonight's game with Hauser and Alcantara that might be the toughest matchup for us. It kind of feels almost like the way I felt when Molly was facing Otani a couple nights ago. It just seemed like he was outmatched. But in that game, Molly Rose to the occasion had a really good game. So maybe Hauser will tonight. Speaking of Hauser, his ERA is 5-4-0 after four games. But I think if you look at his field independent pitching, it's actually high three. So he's gotten a little bit unlucky. I think he's going to do better. He's at home tonight. His last two starts have been on the road. He's at home tonight. He's given up four in each of his last three. I just feel like he's going to be settled down. He's at home. It's Oracle Park. He's going to rise to the occasion because of who he's matched up against. So I think he's going to have a better game. I feel good about it. As far as Sandy Alcantara goes, as you guys may know, he's been around for a while, who is really good. He's one of their aces, maybe the ace there. 30-year-old Righty. He seems to be back to his old form after a down year last year. He won the Cy Young in 2022. And he had Tommy John. And then last year was his first year back and didn't do that well. But then, you know, they say it takes your second year to fully recover. And that kind of seems to be the case with Alcantara so far. He's had five games, zero runs in seven innings in the first. Then he pitched a complete shutout, nine inning shutout. Then he went two, only gave up two and eight in a third. Then he had his bad game. He gave up seven runs in six. Like everyone seems to have a bad game right about in there. And then his last game, he gave up three and five innings, which isn't that good. He gave up six walks. So actually, his last two outings have not been as good as those first three. It all adds up to a 2.0 total ERA and a 1.05 whip, both very good numbers. Also, his contract is up after this year, and there are already trade rumors. So I imagine he is trying to up his valley value with every outing so that he can get a nice final contract. Like I said though, his two best games were the games against Colorado and the White Sox. So you might be able to argue that his numbers are a little inflated because those are not the best teams. And when he did go against the other teams, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and oh boy, I forget who the other one was, his numbers were a little more pedestrian, a little more average. So if you look at the odds today, the books think this is going to be a close game. They have the Marlins at minus 108 at the money line and the Giants minus 102. So they're expecting it to be very close. The over-under is 7.5, slightly juice to the over at minus 112. The under 15 and a half hits, it's back up to 15.5 hits for this game. That is minus 120. I'm kind of leaning toward the unders just because the Marlins are a bad road team. We got Al Cantera against the Giants, it's Oracle Park. At first, I thought I would have taken the money line, the Giants money line, if it wasn't for Al Cantera. He kind of scared me. But then once I looked at him and I thought maybe his numbers are a little bit inflated and Hauser should be better. I kind of like the money line with that situation. Anyway, those are my leans right now. And that's gonna lead me down that winding path to today's safe bet of the day. And the two I'm looking at the most, like I said, Giants money line, minus 102 and under 15 and a half hits at minus 120. I looked at the strikeouts, the earned runs, the innings, they were all again really bad numbers, minus 170, minus 160, that kind of thing. So they were all just kind of out of play. But like I said, I know the money line is juiced to the Marlins, but I kind of think just because Al Contera might be a little overrated, Houser a little underrated, like I said, it's at Oracle. Our bullpen has been good, they're a bad road team. They've come all the way across the country. So I think the Giants are in line to get the win tonight, even though they're underdogs. But the one I'm gonna go with finally is the under 15.5 hits because if the Giants don't pull it out because Al Contera is good, that means they haven't got very many hits. And I still think Hauser is going to be decent enough, and our bullpen will be decent enough. So I'm gonna make that today's safe bet of the day. The under 15 and a half hits at minus 120. Now, for today's song of the day, I have to promise right off the bat that I will not keep throwing out old 70s tunes. But yesterday's just happened to match up because I used Artful Dodger in the title. So I gave you an Artful Dodger song. And today, well, I'm gonna have a house party in the title. So I'm gonna give you an old song by Jay Giles called Ain't Nothing But a House Party. Now, most of my playlist, I have to admit, is from just the past five or ten years, songs that my kids have sent me. But I just remember this one. It's not even really on my playlist, I just remember it because it was an album my brother had. We listened to this thing all the time. Jay Giles is awesome, an underrated 70s band. You want to go listen to some good tunes, go put on some Jay Giles music. And this song in particular is one of my favorites. So today's song of the day ain't nothing but a house party by Jay Giles band. With that, tune in tomorrow. We have Yuri Perez on the mound against Robbie Ray. That's at 1.05 in the afternoon, the Saturday afternoon game. As usual, we will recap tonight's game, analyze tomorrow's game, try to set you up with a safe bet of the day. With that, make sure and stay safe out there on your Friday. And go, giant.