Giants On A 'Vich Hunt

After the quickest of recaps of last night's loss, M moves on to today's early game.  He spends a bit of time on the young lefty going for the O's, Cade Povich, and a little less time on the Giants' Houser.  He admits he has little clarity on the direction of this game and that leads him to an unusual first for the Safe Bet of the Day™. 

There is a rumor that Aidan may be making his next appearance on Tuesday morning's pod.  Don't miss it. 

Transcript

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Good morning and welcome back to today at AM and the AM, your San Francisco Giants pre-game podcast, bringing you previews, projections, and predictions before every Giants game. Good morning everyone and welcome back into the pod. It is Sunday morning, April 12th, and we are coming to you after a disappointing Giants loss last night. You know what was funny, something about it just didn't seem right from the beginning. We had Webb versus Bassett. That just didn't seem fair. There was no way we could lose. We had our ace against their what number four guy. That feeling should always make you nervous and suspicious to begin with. We outhid him 7-4 through that five, but still Webb gave up the runs and we couldn't come through with safe better the day. Had a lot of opportunities, just could not get the clutch hit. At the end of the game, we had two for 14 with runners in scoring position, 12 hits, but like I said, just couldn't get the big one to bring him in. Bases loaded at one point, first and third at one point, all those kinds of situations, but we could not finish it. So we'll move on quickly and get right into today's game. It is the rubber match, and I'm gonna guess, I haven't seen the lineup yet, but I'm gonna guess that Arias is probably gonna be out. We'll probably see Coss instead. I'm gonna think also that Susek might be in for Bailey because we have a lefty on the mound. I'm hoping that's the case. I also wouldn't mind if Bader sat one out because he has looked terrible. He is just pressing everywhere. Looks like he's just guessing every time he's up there. On the mound is Hauser for the Giants and Cade Povich for the Orioles. And Cade Povich was just recalled from AAA last week because of injuries to the Orioles line or rotation. And specifically, Yorami Geraldo got hurt, so they had to bring up somebody. So they recalled him just in time because when they called him up, it was just in time to take over. He came in on the day when Bassett only got through two innings against Pittsburgh. So they brought in Povich. He went 5.2 innings, kind of came in like an innings eater, gave up only two runs, four hits and three walks, only had two strikeouts. So did well considering it was already the game was already six to nothing when he got brought in, and he was basically just in there to eat up the innings, like I said. He's a lefty, which is why I think we will probably have Susek in the lineup today. He was once considered a top prospect, but just hasn't had that much success since trying it in the big leagues. In his last triple A appearance, he allowed five runs. In the let's see, in 2024, he pitched in 16 games, had a 5.2 ERA, 3-9 record, not that good. Then in 25 last year, he pitched in 22 games, 5.21 ERA with a 3-8 record. Again, not very good. So it's still kind of hard to know how he's gonna be. This is kind of a chance for him to prove himself. He has the stuff, he just kind of has a lack of control again. He's had he struggled finding the strike zone. He has worked in a kicks change, a kick change, he said during spring training. Although in spring training, his ERA was 4.32. But like I said, the Orioles like him and he could be dangerous. He's a young kid, so just not quite sure what to make of him because we haven't seen any. There's just no real numbers on him, especially in the big leagues. This is gonna be his actual first start of the year. Now for Hauser, he's at a 3970 RA through two with the Giants, which is about what we would expect. His whip is a 1.59, a little bit high. Still unsure of what to do with him. I'm not sure how to approach his start. I haven't seen enough of him. He could easily give up three or four runs, so I'm gonna leave him out altogether for today's game because I think with both pitchers being such unknowns, Povich being his first start, Hauser still new to the Giants, I have no idea how this game is gonna go. And because of that, I want to leap right over the usual money lines and run lines and over-unders and get to today's slightly unusual safe bet of the day. And that is because, like I said, either pitcher could mow him down, either pitcher could get lit up, either offense could either offense could come to life, either offense could not. Which team is gonna get the clutch hits, which team won't. The bullpins are still a question mark. So I'm gonna go in a little bit different direction and take a pick we haven't done before. So last night, when I make my little numbers of what I want to look at today when I get up and see what the numbers are. I had Money Line, but it came out at plus one plus one twelve, and the over-under is eight and a half. With two unknown pitchers, this game could be the over-under seems completely unpredictable, and who's gonna win the game seems unpredictable. So I want to leave all of that out. Like I said, they don't feel that safe to me. So what I focused on, I had two numbers last night that I put a little star next to to check this morning. One was a little note that said, check on Povich's strikeout numbers. If it's under four and a half, take that. Check on his earned runs. If it's over one and a half, take that. Well, the earned runs was two and a half, so I kind of scratched that. But when I looked at the strikeout rate, it was not four and a half, it was actually five and a half. And so I really like that. That was that's the one that really stuck out at me. I was thinking anything under, I don't think he's gonna get to five, let alone get to six. And here's why. I think he's gonna have a short lease. It is the rubber match of the series, and both teams are trying to win this series. So if he gets into trouble, I think Orioles are just gonna go right to the bullpen. I don't think they're gonna let him take a chance to get out of control and lose this game. Also, I like the fact that I'm pretty sure Susak is gonna play over Bailey, and you know, Bailey can strike out. Susak doesn't seem like a strikeout candidate. I don't think he's struck out yet this year. I'm kind of hoping Bader's gonna be out. Now, my worry is this one that Orias, I think, is gonna be out, and whoever takes his place, Coss or whoever, is obviously more of a strikeout candidate than Arias is. Also, the Orioles did use five relievers last night. So it's maybe they want Povich to eat up innings again, but still, like I said, I think if he gets into trouble, they are going to get him out of there and go to the bullpen because they're gonna try to win this game and win the series. So when I first saw this number at under five and a half, I thought it was gonna be my guaranteed 100% locked and loaded level three pick, like Aiden's home run pick the other day. But because of a couple worries that I have there, like I said, Arias and maybe it's not, maybe I'm not that 100% sure, but I really do like it. It is the one pick today that I really like. I think it's the safest bet. I just can't see him getting to six strikeouts, which means he's probably gonna get 10. He'll probably go seven innings and get 10 strikeouts. Anyway, that is gonna be the official pick of the day, a K Povich under five and a half K's. Here, the problem is it's minus 130, and I hate to do one with that kind of juice, but we did just have a couple with plus money, and 130 is really about our limit. So I'm gonna take it anyway because I don't feel good about the other ones, and I do feel good about this one. It's almost locked and loaded. It's locked, it's or it's loaded. I just haven't locked it yet, but anyway, so that is gonna be the pick minus 130 for Povich under five and a half strikeouts. Now, there is no game tomorrow. The Giants have a day off. They will be traveling to Cincinnati to face the Reds, who are nine and six. They're starting off this year very well. It's not gonna be an easy series like we thought it might have been at the beginning of the year. Also, they are home today and another day off tomorrow, so they're gonna be very rested up all the way around. So that's gonna be tough. Luckily, we do have Robbie Ray on the mound against Brady Singer, so we can talk about those numbers Tuesday morning. So, yeah, we will be back Tuesday morning to recap today's game and to talk about that matchup with Ray and Singer and the Reds. So until then, enjoy your Sunday and Monday. Be safe and go giant.